Donald Trump has reasserted that the US maintains “total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” while claiming that internal infighting has left the Iranian leadership in disarray. However, this claim faces scrutiny following Iran’s seizure of two container ships and a Pentagon report suggesting it could take six months to clear the waterway of naval mines.
The President’s remarks followed a US special forces operation to board a stateless tanker suspected of carrying Iranian crude. This escalation, combined with Iran’s retaliatory seizures, has sustained a dual blockade that keeps global oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel. While US forces have successfully intercepted ships exiting Iranian ports, they have yet to prove they can safely reopen the strait for allied vessels.
Compounding the crisis is the threat of sea mines. A Pentagon briefing warned that clearing approximately 20 sophisticated mines—some deployed remotely—could take half a year, potentially dragging out the economic fallout long after a ceasefire. While the Pentagon officially labeled these reports “inaccurate,” Trump claimed on Truth Social that minesweeping efforts have tripled and that he has issued “shoot and kill” orders against any vessel attempting to mine the channel.
The International Energy Agency has called this the “biggest energy security threat in history.” Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain stalled; Iran refused peace talks in Pakistan, citing US violations of a previous ceasefire. Despite this, Trump extended the truce indefinitely, insisting that the US has the strait “Sealed up Tight” and attributing Iran’s refusal to negotiate to a power struggle between “hardliners” and “moderates.”
The leadership vacuum in Tehran centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who was severely injured in the initial US-Israeli strikes in February that killed his father. While reports suggest he remains mentally engaged despite requiring extensive surgery, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to have seized more collective control. The IRGC defended their recent ship seizures as necessary for maritime security, alleging the vessels had tampered with navigation systems.
The standoff has now evolved into a propaganda war, with both nations releasing footage of high-stakes commando raids at sea. For Trump, the continued closure of the strait is a double-edged sword: while it cripples the Iranian economy, the resulting surge in global fuel prices and inflation poses a significant political risk ahead of the November midterm elections.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/
